Why I don't trust Experts

Via Yahoo/AP:



Experts: Years before dollar regains value, prestige worldwide



Conspicuously missing from the story is the length of time it took the dollar to slide. Look, I don't understand anything about economics. A dollar is still a dollar, though I guess it buys less and that makes it weak. Either way, what'd it take for us to go from gangbusters to a weak dollar? Six months?



Where, precisely, is it written that it will take years to come back? Things can turn up as quickly as they turn down, and there's no guarantee that Europe's economic problems (which I assume are varied) might not cause similar problems for the Euro.



At the end of it all, like the weathermen and the global warming crowd, too much of this is guesswork for my taste. They all have pet theories they've been waiting years to see turn real, and now that a down cycle has finally hit they're crowing about how right they are. I have no idea why they love doom & gloom so much, other than it's Bush's fault. My only actual concern is if one of the Democrats gets elected, these central planning ouija-board pundits might actually be in a position to ruin the economy.



In which case they're correct - it will take years to regain prosperity.